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Prediction and Path of Carbon Peak in Shannan Region of Tibet Based on Multi Scenario Analysis
ZHANG Yang, ZHANG Jinbo, JIANG Shaorui, GUO Huaicheng, WANG Shuhang, FU Zhenghui
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2024, 60 (2): 350-356.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2023.095
Abstract32)   HTML    PDF(pc) (766KB)(16)       Save
This study takes Shannan City in Tibet as the research object, and proposes peak paths and specific policy suggestions based on the prediction results of carbon emission peak values in different scenarios by constructing a GM-ImPACT model. The results show that, the current economic growth rate coupled with strong emission reduction strategies is the optimal path for Shannan City to achieve carbon peak. Shannan City is expected to achieve carbon peak 10 years ahead of schedule in 2024, reducing its total carbon emissions by 20.72%, and its carbon emission intensity will drop by 7.89 percentage points higher than the national level. The proposed model framework could be applied to explore the optimal path of carbon peak for other cities.
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Study on Hydrochemical Change Trend of Yarlung Tsangpo River Based on Artificial Neural Network
LIU Jiaju, LI Jincheng, GUO Huaicheng, YUAN Peng, LI Zheng, ZHANG Yang, WANG Zhiyong
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2023, 59 (6): 1043-1051.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2023.093
Abstract92)   HTML    PDF(pc) (2184KB)(41)       Save
In order to reveal the trend of water chemistry change in the Yarlung Tsangpo River (Yajiang River) under the background of climate change and provide scientific and technological support for water resources and water environment management in the basin, based on the study of hydrochemical characteristics of the Yajiang River in 2016, 2017 and 2018, combined with the research results of existing research teams on hydrochemistry, this paper studies the trend of 11 hydrochemical components change of the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yajiang River over the past 60 years by comprehensive use of linear tendency estimation, climate change model output and BP neural network model. The results show that the annual average temperature in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yajiang River Basin has been increasing obviously in the past 60 years. The average temperature warming rate was 0.38°C/10a. The precipitation in the Yajiang River Basin fluctuated obviously and showed an overall rising trend, with a rising rate of 7.34 mm/10a. pH value of the water in Yajiang River was weakly alkaline and showd an upward trend. TDS was higher than the average level of the world river (120 mg/L) and showed a trend of gradual increase. Based on the climate change model RCP4.5 scenario, the artificial neural network prediction shows that the TDS flux in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yajiang River Basin presents a gradually increasing trend, and the downstream will have a certain impact on the production and life of the downstream residents. 
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Analysis of Air Pollution Emission Effects of the Industrial Sector in Hebei Province Based on the Emission Decomposition
WANG Han, ZHANG Jinbo, GUO Huaicheng, ZHANG Wenjie, WANG Shulan
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2023, 59 (5): 823-832.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2023.048
Abstract113)   HTML    PDF(pc) (870KB)(38)       Save
In order to explore the impact of social, economic and industrial energy factors on air pollution emissions of the industrial sector in Hebei Province, the LMDI model was adopted to decompose the air pollutant emissions of the industrial sector in Hebei Province from 2013 to 2020. Four economic and industrial energy consumption scenarios were set according to the current economic development and pollutant emission trend. The contributions of future socio-economic and industrial energy effects to pollutant emission in Hebei Province by 2035 were predicted under these scenarios. The results show that the industrial structure and energy structure of Hebei Province have been thoroughly adjusted in recent years, and the dependence of economic development on industry has been reduced. The reduction of industrial sector capacity and the elimination of outdated production capacity have achieved remarkable results. Clean use of energy is still an effective means of industrial green and clean transformation. In addition, the current energy structure of the industrial sector still needs to be further adjusted, and the application of new energy and clean energy in the industrial sector is the main adjustment direction in future. The prediction results indicate that the slowdown of gross regional domestic product growth will promote the emission reduction of air pollutants in the industrial sector, and the contribution of the adjustment of industrial and energy structure to the emission reduction of air pollutants in the industrial sector will gradually increase. 
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Evaluation Method of Watershed Water Environment Carrying Capacity under Climate Change Scenarios
ZHANG Yang, FU Zhenghui, ZHANG Yaran, GUO Huaicheng, JIANG Xia, WANG Shuhang
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2023, 59 (2): 242-250.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2023.012
Abstract265)   HTML    PDF(pc) (4590KB)(164)       Save
The Huangshui River Basin in Qinghai Province was selected as the research case. Considering the close relationship between climate change and hydrological cycle of the basin and the severe impact on the water environment system, the evaluation method system of water environment carrying capacity of the basin under the impact of climate change was constructed. The matching of time and space scales was carried out from the perspective of systematicness and integrity, so as to accurately evaluate the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle of the basin scale and carry out the calculation of water environment carrying capacity. Finally, the assessment and analysis of the dynamic change of the basin water environmental carrying capacity under the influence of climate change was established. The research results show that climate warming would lead to a decline in the water environmental carrying capacity of the Huangshui River Basin, but with the passage of time, the water environmental carrying capacity under the future climate change scenario would generally improve.
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Study on Coupling Simulation Method of Environmental-Economic System at Lake Watershed
ZHANG Baichuan, ZHANG Yang, LI Zheng, LIU Yanxiao, GUO Huaicheng
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2022, 58 (5): 937-948.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2022.076
Abstract370)   HTML    PDF(pc) (1200KB)(191)       Save
In order to explore the internal conflict and synergy among water pollution control, water conservation and socio-economic development, a system of coupling simulation for the aquatic environmental-economic system of lake watershed was constructed and applied at Yilong Lake Watershed. Based on the scenario analysis, the following conclusions are drawn. 1) Under the condition of economic and social affordability, the nutrient load of Yilong Lake can be reduced to the level of aquatic environmental capacity corresponding to Grade IV water quality through the measures of controlling the pollution. 2) The implementation of industrial relocation or very strict scale restriction is extremely unfavorable for gross domestic product (GDP) growth and urbanization of the watershed, but does not play a significant role in protecting the aquatic environment of Yilong Lake. 3) The critical measures in the planning period are to change the planting practices of high water-consuming and heavy fertilizer-using, treat rural domestic sewage more effectively, promote sewage reuse, and reduce the transfer of sewage. 4) According to the simulation results, the optional scheme selected by the approach proposed here would reduce the water diversion demand by 45%, and cut down the total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) discharged into the lake from the land surface by 26.6% and 18.5% respectively, and eliminate the TN and TP load of the lake by 20.7% and 17.5% respectively, but only at a cost of 7% of GDP at the end of the planning period.
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Consistency Evaluation of Ecological Carrying Capacity and Industrial Layout Based on “Three Lines One Permit” Index System
LU Wentao, YIN Caichun, ZHANG Yang, FU Zhenghui, GUO Huaicheng, YU Lei, LIU Yi
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2021, 57 (4): 749-755.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2021.061
Abstract712)   HTML    PDF(pc) (1031KB)(149)       Save
Combined with the work of “Three Lines One Permit” in China, this study constructed a corresponding index system, and selected Qingpu District of Shanghai as the case study area to evaluate the consistency of regional ecological carrying capacity and industrial layout by both single factor and comprehensive index methods. The results show that: 1) the single factor ecological carrying rate can reflect the key limiting factors, while the comprehensive index can directly show the cumulative impact of regional industries on ecological carrying capacity; 2) the conflict between industrial layout and ecological space and soil environmental quality is less in Qingpu District, but the contradiction between industrial layout and water, atmospheric environment is prominent, which results in the overload of ecological environment and the disharmony between ecological carrying capacity and industrial layout; 3) the regions with prominent consistency problems are basically the same as the key units of environmental control, indicating that the index system is objective and feasible, can provide reference for relevant evaluation and research work, and has the feasibility of nationwide promotion. It is suggested to strengthen pollutant emission control for the key control units. 
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Estimation of Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution Loads Based on Improved Export Coefficient Model
HU Qing, GUO Huaicheng, WANG Yuqi, ZHANG Yang, LI Zheng, FU Zhenghui, LU Wentao
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2021, 57 (4): 739-748.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2021.049
Abstract660)   HTML    PDF(pc) (1455KB)(91)       Save
The Dianchi watershed Basin was selected as a typical watershed. Considering the differences of regional natural geography, hydrometeorology and human activities, using 1 km×1 km grid data, the detailed simulation calculation of the pollutants entering the water source of agricultural sources is carried out. The rainfall driving factors, terrain driving factors, surface runoff factor, underground storage/groundwater runoff factor and interception factor are obtained. The average comprehensive water inflow coefficients of TN and TP from agricultural sources in Dianchi Basin in 2016 are 0.447 and 0.342 respectively, and the actual water inflow loads of TN and TP from agricultural sources in 2016 are 577.39 t and 167.62 t respectively. The results show that the discharge of agricultural source pollutants and the load of influent water have significant spatial variation in Dianchi Lake Basin. 81.0% of nitrogen and 74.2% of phosphorus were concentrated in Caohai land area and the north coast of the open sea. The largest emission was in the upper reaches of Panlong River, with nitrogen and phosphorus accounting for 21.9% and 20.2% respectively. It is also found that livestock and poultry breeding account for more than 90% of the total TN and TP emissions of from agricultural sources, which should be the focus of agricultural source pollution control. 
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Consistency Evaluation of Regional Ecological Carrying Capacity and Industrial Layout Based on Spatial Grid
LU Wentao, FU Zhenghui, GUO Huaicheng, LÜ Hongdi, YU Lei
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2020, 56 (5): 971-974.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2020.072
Abstract615)   HTML    PDF(pc) (504KB)(140)       Save
Based on the spatial grid of the kilometer scale, the basic evaluation unit is constructed. The consistency evaluation of regional ecological carrying capacity and industrial layout are carried out. The Qingpu District of Shanghai is used as a research case. The results show that proposed method can effectively identify the regional ecological carrying capacity and the spatial distribution of industrial pressure, and evaluate the consistency of the regional ecological carrying capacity and industrial layout. The average industrial pressure index of Qingpu District is 0.51, and the ecological carrying capacity index is 0.25. The ecological carrying capacity of Qingpu district has a high consistency with the industrial layout, and the average consistency index is 3.12.
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Study on the Classification of Response Relationship between Total Pollutant Emission Reduction and Water Quality Improvement in China
BAI Hui, CHEN Yan, WANG Dong, WU Shunze, GAO Wei, GUO Huaicheng
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2020, 56 (4): 765-771.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2020.051
Abstract960)   HTML    PDF(pc) (956KB)(264)       Save
 The response relationship between total pollution emission reduction and water quality improvement from 2011 to 2015 was analyzed by data envelopment analysis (DEA). The results show that the response relationship is different in time and space. The response relationship was further divided into four different models, and suggestions about total pollution emission controlling and water environment prevention were made under different models, in order to make total pollution emission controlling play a better role in water quality improvement. The result should provide scientific basis for precise pollution control in accordance with the water environment quality objectives of the basin.
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Estimating Nitrogen and Phosphorus Pollution Load in Bali Lake Basin of Jiangxi Province Based on SWAT Model
CHEN Yan, ZHAO Yanxin, ZHAO Yue, WANG Dong, BAI Hui, GUO Huaicheng
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2019, 55 (6): 1112-1118.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2019.086
Abstract1068)   HTML    PDF(pc) (1883KB)(263)       Save
The simulation of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) pollution load structure in Bali Lake basin was performed by SWAT model using the spatial and attribute database acquired through social survey and statistical data. The model was applied and validated based on the data of meteorology, runoff and water quality from 2010 to 2014. The spatial-temporal distribution of N and P in the basin was also studied. The results showed that the urban life was the most important source of N and P load, following by agriculture and livestock breeding pollution source, and the least was industry pollution source. The annual TN and TP loads were mainly concentrated in flood season (from May to September) which took up nearly 55% of the whole year load. As the amount of precipitation increased, TN and TP loads increased during flood period, which was mainly due to the increasing of non-point rural living water and agricultural fertilization pollution source with scouring action of the heavy rainfall during flood season. The spatial distribution of N and P was centered on the Jiujiang county, Xunyang and Lushan district as the urban agglomeration area affected by urban sewage pollution.
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Urban River Landscape Planning Based on Landscape Evaluation: A Case Study of Panlong River in Kunming
LIU Jiaju, WANG Yuhong, ZHAO Long, GUO Huaicheng
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2019, 55 (1): 189-196.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2018.093
Abstract737)   HTML    PDF(pc) (2633KB)(152)       Save

To construct the evaluation index system of urban river landscape, the landscape evaluation of the river is taken as the target level, and the eco-environmental index, social economy and aesthetics are taken as the guideline. Water quality, species diversity, water transparency, flood control, waterscape utilization, landscape accessibility, color beauty, form beauty, and regional culture are used as index layers. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to determine the weight of each indicator layer, and the use of distance index method is used to build the evaluation model. The evaluation model was used to evaluate the landscape of the upper and lower reaches of Panlong River in Kunming. The quantitative evaluation and qualitative evaluation are combined to provide guidance for planning and design of urban river system landscape environment and to build a new model of water restoration planning in order to provide reference for sustainable development.

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Ecological Tension Index Assessment in China Based on RBFN Model
WANG Yuqi, CHENG Shupeng, LU Wentao, FU Zhenghui, GUO Huaicheng
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2019, 55 (1): 182-188.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2018.091
Abstract866)   HTML    PDF(pc) (1601KB)(205)       Save

This paper select related indexes of ecological tension to establish the RBFN (radial basis function network) model, which is trained and tested according to the research results of ecological tension at different time in different regions. Then, the model is used to evaluate ecological tension of China’s 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in 2008 and 2013, and the evaluation results visualization expressed with GIS. The results show that the half area is the ecological pressure security status, and Beijing has the largest ecological pressure all the time; 22 provincial administrative regions’ ecological tension are aggravated from 2008 to 2013; regionally, the ecological pressure is the largest in North China, and the smallest in the northwest.

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Key Processes and Mechanisms of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Cycling in Lakes
WU Zhen, WU Sifeng, LIU Yong, ZHANG Yuyu, XIE Shuguang, GUO Huaicheng
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2018, 54 (1): 218-228.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2017.143
Abstract1342)   HTML29)    PDF(pc) (574KB)(677)       Save

Special attention has been paid to three types of processes, that is, source process, removal process and internal cycling. Through the summary of literatures, the mechanisms of typical cycling processes, such as sediment release and denitrification, were discussed. The comparison of contributions of different cycling processes was listed as well. Moreover, the main research approaches of experiment and modeling in this field were well summarized and compared, raising a general framework for the study of nutrients cycling in lakes. With the purpose of looking into the cycling of nutrients, different approaches should be combined together. For example, mechanism models and observation for the mass balance of nutrients, then the microcosmic experiments for the impact factors of cycling processes. It is an efficient way to explore the cycling of nutrients in lakes.

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Study of an Optimum Population under the Water Environmental Restriction
FU Zhenghui, LU Wentao, ZHAO Haojin, GUO Huaicheng
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2018, 54 (1): 157-161.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2017.120
Abstract978)   HTML12)    PDF(pc) (361KB)(220)       Save

Considering per person GDP, water resource and sewage discharge of per capita, an inexact fuzzy linear programming model is applied for regional population management in Xining, China. The result indicated that the Xining’s population would be [282.16×104, 324.00×104], [241.94×104, 282.88×104] and [220.32×104, 261.93×104] under the scenario of low, medium and high degree of satisfaction. Meanwhile, the shortage of available water resource would be the limiting factor on the growth of regional population.

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Selection of Ecological Footprint Prediction Model: A Case Study of Wuhan City
LIU Yongchao;GUO Huaicheng;DAI Chao
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2015, 51 (5): 897-904.  
Abstract610)      PDF(pc) (681KB)(491)       Save
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An Integrated CA-Markov Model for Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change in Lake Dianchi Watershed
HE Dan,ZHOU Jing,GAO Wei,GUO Huaicheng,YU Shuxia,LIU Yong
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract756)      PDF(pc) (4389KB)(692)       Save
Taking Lake Dianchi Watershed as study area, the dynamics change degree of land use types in the watershed was analyzed based on interpretation data from TM image in 1990 and 1999. The direction of land use conversion was quantitatively analyzed by land use transfer matrix based on the Markov model. Meanwhile, land use change tendency of 2008 was simulated and forecasted based on land use conversion rules using multi-criteria evaluation method from GIS and combining with CA-Markov model. Compared with the interpretation data of 2008, Kappa coefficient of the simulated results was 0.7338, indicating that the simulated results were credible. The spatial patterns of land use change in 2017 and 2026 were simulated by using CA-Markov model. The results show that land use change is also active in this watershed and ecological restoration and reconstruction is still confronted with pressure. Farmland, forest, water and unused land will reduce from 2008 to 2026, while the grassland and construction land will continue to increase. Compared with the trend of land use from 1990 to 2008, the simulated result indicate that farmland, forest and construction land from 2008 to 2026 will keep the same change trend while grassland, water and unused land show the opposite change trend. Construction land will expand on the basis of the present and the change of water is little. Although forest resources will decrease in future, it is still the main land use types in watershed. Construction land expansion significantly increases the load of non-point source pollution in Dianchi. Unreasonable land use is one of the major causes of the water quality degradation in Dianchi Lake currently, and it is going to increase the pressure on the water environment and ecology of water basin in the future. Therefore, to maintain enough arable land per capita, lower fertilization strength, improve land utilization levels, keep a sufficient amount of ecological land, use construction land frugally and intensively, are some important measures to reduce the potential of non-point source pollution in the area. The research can provide scientific support for rational planning and management of land use, the policies formulating of ecological restoration and economic development.
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Evaluating City-Scale Net Anthropogenic Nitrogen Input (NANI) in Mainland China
GAO Wei,GUO Huaicheng,HOU Xikang
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract1042)      PDF(pc) (3035KB)(647)       Save
Based on NANI calculator, statistic data and parameter from 358 cities of China (Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are not included) are applied to assess net anthropogenic nitrogen input (NANI) at China’s city scale. On average, NANI of Mainland China has reached to 45.15 Tg in 2010, and on a per area basis the value is 4716 kg/km2, which is 3 times than world average level. Nitrogen fertilizer input dominates NANI budget items, which accounts for 65.0% of the total, net food and feed input (21.4%), oxide N deposition (7.3%) and crop fixation (6.5%) follow. On geographical basis, NANI of the 358 cities has an obvious characteristic of regionalization, and high value areas appear in cropland and population concentrated places. Compared to province scale data, data on city scale is more effective to assist in discerning key regions, which is able to control more nitrogen input with smaller control area.
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Identifying the Influence of Water Chemistry on Chlorophyll a in Lake Dianchi: A Structural Equation Modeling Analysis
YAN Xiaopin,LI Yuzhao,LIU Yong,YANG Yonghui,ZHAO Lei,GUO Huaicheng
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract752)      PDF(pc) (644KB)(647)       Save
An integrated approach of absolute principle components score-multivariate linear regression (APCS-MLR) and structural equation modeling (SEM) were developed to understand the influence of water chemistry variables on chlorophyll a (Chl a) in Lake Dianchi. The SEM result was further validated with the artificial neural networks (ANN) model. It proved that there was a good agreement on the results of the various models. The model results demonstrated that, among the water chemistry factors, physical factors (T > DO > SD > pH) had the greatest influence on Chl a; whereas nutrients had little influence. In severely polluted water with chronically high nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations like Lake Dianchi, the change of nutrients concentrations will not significantly influence on Chl a, while the sensibility of N is higher than P. Therefore, nitrogen load reduction should be put in priority for eutrophication control in Lake Dianchi.
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Sensitivity of Risk Explicit Interval Linear Programming (REILP) Solutions to Constraint Risk Preferences: Numerical Analysis and Implications
CHEN Xing,ZOU Rui,LIU Yong,SHENG Hu,GUO Huaicheng
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract831)      PDF(pc) (832KB)(284)       Save
The authors study the solution robustness of the Risk Explicit Interval Linear Programming (REILP) model using numerical experimentations, investigating whether optimal solutions of a REILP would vary under various preferences to different constraints. The first numerical experiment deals with an optimal land use planning subject to nutrient loading constraints. The second one deals with an optimal water resource allocation subject to pollutant loading constraints. The results show that REILP solutions have different sensitivities to constraint preferences in different cases. This phenomenon suggests that in practice it is necessary to conduct thorough analysis on the robustness of REILP solutions to constraint preferences before reaching reliable decision support. In addition, the variability of REILP solutions with regard to various constraint preferences makes it possible to efficiently generate alternative management schemes within the frame work of REILP.
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Systematic Optimization and Scenario Analysis of Social Economy and Environment in Dianchi Watershed
SHENG Hu,LIU Hui,WANG Cuiyu,GUO Huaicheng
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Key Components and Modeling Framework for Intelligent Watershed Management (IWM)
ZOU Rui,LIU Yong,YAN Xiaopin,GUO Huaicheng
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract770)      PDF(pc) (481KB)(192)       Save
A new watershed management module, Intelligent Watershed Management (IWM), was proposed. The decision need for watershed management was analyzed before the conception and components of IWM were formulated. The idea of IWM comes from the principles of bionics and imitates the process of human decisions. The IWM is significantly differing from traditional watershed management, which includes three main steps, i.e. watershed information inquiring, input-output response modeling at the watershed scale, and optimized decision making. Four key issues of IWM were identified, including the management goal, suitable models, non-linear responses and computational requirement, and the uncertainties in the watershed system. The modeling framework of IWM was developed and some new algorithms were proposed, such as Risk Explicit Interval Linear Programming (REILP) and Nonlinearity-Interval Mapping Scheme (NIMS) for simulation-optimization analysis. Some cases were demonstrated for the efficiency of the proposed models.
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An Integrated Methodology Framework for Cumulative Environmental Assessment of Regional Development Plan
DU Xiaoshang,LIU Yong,GUO Huaicheng,LIU Hui,YANG Pingjian,YANG Yonghui
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract747)            Save
An integrated methodology framework was proposed to acknowledge the important role of cumulative environmental assessment (CEA) in the strategic environmental assessment of regional development plan (RDP). The developed CEA framework consisted of nine steps, including (a) analysis of regional development plan, (b) identification of environmental responses, (c) determination of CEA scales, (d) network analysis of pressures and responses, (e)baselines for CEA, (f) scenarios development, (g) cumulative assessment and early warning, (h) mitigative measures of environmental consequences, and (i) adaptive management. Scenario analysis and system dynamic (SD) models were integrated to deal with the uncertainties and dynamics in the RDP system. The cumulative environmental consequences at various temporal and spatial scales were assessed using the integrated models. The RDP of Zhengzhou Airport Zone (ZZAZ) was taken as a case and its CEA and early warning for regional air and ground water was carried out. Four scenarios were proposed after the comprehensive of ZZAZ’s RDP and the identification of environmental consequences. System dynamic model was developed for temporal and spatial CEA, combined with air and water mechanistic models. Several strategies were proposed based on CEA results to mitigate the consequences, including (a) adjustment of spatial ecological patterns at regional scale, (b) optimization of regional industries structure, (c) pollution control, and (d) adaptive management.
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Conception, Connotation and Research Framework for Environmentally Sustainable Transport Management
WANG Zhen,GUO Huaicheng
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract644)            Save
Last three decades, China has experienced a fast economic growing and urbanization process. The dramatically increasing of urban population enlarged the demand of transportation, which has caused serious environmental problems. Sustainable transport research, as an effective way to deal with these dilemmas, has been booming after the “Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST) Project” of OECD in 2000. But, it’s still on the road before its theory, methodology and application been consummated. The authors expatiate the definition, characteristic, objects and aims of environmentally sustainable transport management. A research framework, consisting of system dynamic forecasting, external analysis, comprehensive assessment, inexact optimization and backcasting approach, is proposed to assist decision making for transport environment management.
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Driving Forces Analysis of Housing Price in Beijing City
HE Chengjie,GUO Huaicheng,WANG Zhen,YANG Yonghui,LIU Hui,SHENG Hu
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract593)            Save
Multivariate statistical analysis and hedonic pricing method were employed to analyze the effects of structural variables, including land transaction price, bus lines, distance to downtown area, central business district, railway station and hospital, floor area ratio (FAR), and dichotomous variables, including nearness to rail transit, recreational facilities and parks on housing transaction price in Beijing city. Results indicate that the main determinants of real estate price in Beijing are land transaction price, distance to downtown area, FAR, existence of nearby rail transit and recreational facilities. Among which, land transaction price have a considerably positive effect on transaction price, while FAR and distance from housing to the downtown area are the main negative driving forces for housing transaction price in Beijing.
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Chinese Urban Systems in Terms of Domestic Air Flows Since 1995
LI Na,YU Taofang,GUO Huaicheng
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract559)            Save
This paper examines the Chinese urban systems in terms of domestic air flows since 1995 based on gravity model and the fuzzy variable method. Main findings are as following: The first and second tier cities of contemporary urban systems are mostly core cities of megalopolis or mega-city regions; Shanghai and Beijing further strengthened their position as national airline hubs and primary cities. And interactions among mega-city regions reflect the uprising of the Yangtze River Delta Region as the leading region of the nation. Based on gravity model analysis, Beijing enjoys the biggest hubness score followed by Xiamen etc. In 1995-2004, the hubness changes can clearly reflect the recent competitiveness of mega-cities or regions.
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Study on Optimization of Urban Passenger Traffic Environmental SystemBased on Trip
LIU Hui,GUO Huaicheng,YU Yajuan,WANG Zhen,LIU Tao
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract658)            Save
An optimization model was developed for urban traffic environmental system based on passenger trip generating.Firstly, a System Dynamic model was built up to simulate the developing characteristics of urban passenger traffic system, as well as its environmental impacts. Secondly, a linear optimization model, with the objective of maximizing traffic efficiency under the resource and the environment constrains, was formed to search for the best trip assignment structure. Thirdly, several scenarios were designed based on the results of the two former models and amending effects were re-simulated. Finally, grey correlation assessment was utilized on the premise of social-economic support, feasible policy, minimized pressures on resource and environment, to select the optimized assignment structure. Acase study of Beijing wasfollowed andtheresults verified the mode's effectiveness.
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Hydrocarbon Generating Potential and Mode of Late Per mian Coal fromPanxian, Guizhou Province
WANG Zhen,GUO Huaicheng,SUN Xuguang,ZHANG Rui
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract577)            Save
Organic geo-chemical methods were utilizedto simulatethe hydrocarbon-generation modes of coal samples fromGuizhou Province. High temperature simulation experiment by quartz cuvette technique and microscope analysis by FTIR were utilized to estimate hydrocarbon-generation mode and potential of local coal mine in Panxian, Guizhou Province. The results indicate that, the kerogen of Panxian coals is of Ⅲtype; the heating product is mainly gas because of the simple component of kerogen; and the mass hydrocarbon producing temperature is about 300-350 ℃.
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Long-Term Impacts of Urbanization on Surface Runoff in the Xitiaoxi River Watershed, Eastern China
LI Na ,XU Youpeng ,GUO Huaicheng
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract516)            Save
The GIS-based long-term hydrological impact analysis (L-THIA GIS) model was used to simulatethe long-term impacts of urbanization on surface runoff in the Xitiaoxi River watershed in the upper reaches of Taihu Lake. Two historic land use scenarios (1985 and 2000) were analyzed to track land use changes in the watershed andto assessthe impacts of land use changes on annual average runoff. There was a 75% increase in urban land area from 1985 to 2000; consequently, the runoff coefficient increased by 1.4%. When the total urban area occupied was assumed to be 25% or 45% of the entire watershed, the runoff coefficient reached 0.68 or 0.79, respectively. Therefore, a reasonable urban land use plan is needed to limit blind urban expansion; the curve number should be used as an index in land use planning.
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Fractal Characteristic of Regional Economic Relation Intensity and It's Application in Western China
ZHANG Xuehua,GUO Huaicheng,ZHANG Hongwei
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract783)            Save
Fractal method is introduced into the study of regional economy based on the analysis of human-environment complex system in western China. The spatial fractal characteristics are determined by the results from the economic relation intensity model. The economic relation intensities amongst different cities and counties in the Aikesu area are calculated and spatial distributions are analyzed, compared with the fundamental corresponding characteristics of self-affine fractal, thus providing guidance for the regional planning.
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Application of Artificial Neural Ntwork in Urban Fringe's Sustainable Development Index Series
YU Yajuan,WANG Zhen,GUO Huaicheng,HUANG Kai,WANG Shutong,LIU Yong
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract742)            Save
Deriving from the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) theory, a framework of sustainable development (SD) indicators describing urban fringe's urbanization process was brought forward. Sustainable Development Index (ISD) series for multi-years were used to measure the regional capability of sustainability. The socio-economic-environmental grand system was considered as a grey system and artificial neural network (ANN) was applied to calculate the ISD series. Then a case study of Huiji District, Zhengzhou City was adopted for ISD assessment from the year 1987 to 2004, and uncertainty analysis was also construed. The results showed that both the framework and the ISD with ANN were suitable in reflecting its SD levels. The method is recommendable for analogous problems.
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